11:30AM EDT 13, August, 2026 Update

Above: Tropical Storm Lala on approach to Hawaii. Image credit: Weathernerds.org

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii. Now Tropical Storm Lala is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as it crosses the Hawaiian island. Very heavy rain will begin to impact the Big Island tomorrow, Friday, and spread throughout the chain over the weekend, resulting in potentially life-threatening flooding and mudslides.We have a Forecast Lounge up for Lala.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is less than favorable for development and seeming to trend more and more inhospitable by the day. Invests 92L and 94L struggle in the Main Development Region and it is nowhere near certain that either one gets named.
Ciel

2:30AM EDT 13, August, 2026 Update
Very challenging conditions for development abound throughout the Atlantic basin. The northernmost feature, a subtropical trof that broke off to the northeast, actually picked up the name Cristobal, and might be the saddest looking tropical storm of the year so far. But, there's still time for a challenger to take that title away. Invests 92L and 94L are trying.

92L has been a borderline TD for at least a half a day now. One could understand if NHC went ahead and numbered it. Models keep backing down on its potential, most now never strengthening it beyond a low-end tropical storm or depression.

94L is not especially organized still, despite occasionally sporting beefier convection than either 92L or Cristobal. Fewer ensemble models seem to want to develop this one now, also.

In the central Pacific, all eyes are on Storm One-C, still a "Potential Tropical Cyclone," but one that is already producing winds of tropical storm force. The expectation is that its elongated circulation with presently two vorticity maxima comes together as one and intensifies as it heads towards Hawaii, but this is still a little uncertain. Nonetheless, interests in Hawaii may want to begin paying very close attention, as even if One-C does not organize much more (low chance, but possible), heavy, flooding rains and strong winds will still be likely.
Ciel

Original Update
The Atlantic has three areas of interest this morning. The first area is new, the northern one, quickly moving east. It could develop into a short live system before it hits cooler waters. This has a 10% chance according to the National Hurricane Center.

The second area is the leading wave in the Central Atlantic is heading west with a 10% chance also, this one is less likely to develop and if it does likely to hit shear from the TUTT ahead of it keeping it from developing, those in the Caribbean will want to watch it still however for around Thursday.

The last area is east of there, south of the Cape Verde islands, with a 60% chance to develop, this one is likely the most prime candidate to develop, however, none of them have been invest tagged yet (this one may get tagged later today or tomorrow). It could be the one that slips through the shear, however more likely to miss the islands to the north. But those in the Caribbean still should watch this coming weekend to Monday if this system is weaker than expected. Bermuda also may want to watch much later for mid to late next week as it could get close. That's currently the most likely scenario right now, but it could change. Watch here or the lounge on flhurricane for a bit more speculation. Lounge thread https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...;vc=#Post116098 The general high shear environment of el nino is still there, and this system is likely to struggle to develop.

In the Central Pacific, invest CP93 has a 90% chance, and Hawaii should watch closely.

Screenshot image credit: TC-ATLAS

What is becoming quite possibly one of the strongest, if not the strongest, El Niños on record,has made it very difficult for otherwise could-be very powerful tropical cyclones in the Atlantic to level up. Both Arthur and Bertha had internal dynamics that in even just average ENSO years could easily have had them both become formidable early season hurricanes, instead came in much less intense versions of themselves. In the Pacific, things are completely different, and a number of US land locations on that side of the CONUS look to be at greater risk for impacts and maybe even direct hits this year.

We are currently tracking Hurricane Fausto, which is likely to at least indirectly swipe the northern Hawaiian islands and bring enhanced, potentially flooding rainfalls to some locations there. We have a Lounge up on this system and have allowed our Hype Scale to reflect the possibility of a US land impact for it, although this number could be coming down if current north-side-of-cone tracks continue. Recon is flying multiple flights into Fausto and this information is truly helping to improve the forecast.

Getting back to the Atlantic as we head into August, even strong El Niño years can occasionally see substantial rampups during that roughly August 20 to Sep 10 lead into climatological peak, so things may pick up later in August. Near-term, both the MJO and NAO phases are actually supportive for development in the Atlantic basin, but Chris Farley would like to have a word with them.

12:30AM CDT 23, July, 2026 Update
Bertha is the storm that won't quit. Tonight, a very powerful electrified convective mid-level vortex developed to the southwest of the apparent nascent surface center jump and we have confirmed sustained winds at an elevation of 98' up to 75 MPH so far. Whatever the exact technical classification for this stage of Bertha (something that is likely to get reviewed post-season), hurricane-force winds were recently occurring roughly 100 miles south of Louisiana.

Ciel

9PM CDT 22 July, 2026 Update
Bertha's low-level circulation center may be jumping offshore under the deep convection tonight. This could dramatically influence future track and intensity.



6PM CDT 22 July, 2026 Update
I always say never, ever write off a hearty, enduring circulation. It appears Bertha's surface circulation is coming close to one way or another being back in the Gulf. Concurrently, the mid-level circulation may also be in the process of better realigning with the surface low. Finally, shear looks to be easing up and may in fact be on the lighter side in the northwest Gulf for the remainder of the cyclone's time over water.

Is the path to hurricane truly completely closed? While not the most probable outcome, if Bertha's low-level center reemerges and/or reforms over the Gulf, which is looking increasingly likely this evening, a window to ramp up to at least strong tropical storm status could open, with time left over the water now the primary variable instead of shear. Interests along the Texas coast may want to begin paying closer attention. How things play out over the next 18 hours could make or break whether this is a breezy but mostly innocuous splash and dash event, or something that impacts a lot more like a real tropical storm.
Ciel

10AM CDT 22 July, 2026 Update
Bertha decoupled overnight in the face of ever-increasing shear, and the path to hurricane is now closed. Indeed, the tropical cyclone is now mostly a ghost swirl of intense low pressure and blustery showers with a few occasional hot towers, having had the core of deep convection as well as its mid-level circulation shoved off well to the southwest. With the upcoming track over at least portions of Louisiana now certain, weakening is by far the most likely scenario. The official NHC track that carries Bertha as a Tropical Storm all into the upper Texas coast including the Houston/Galveston area may be advertising more bark than bite, but precautions are still warranted.
Ciel

1:30AM CDT 21 July, 2026 Update
Bertha continues intensifying. A few models are back to suggesting potential for a hurricane near or just south of Louisiana and these runs are now plausible, although still not the official forecast and especially tenuous given the expected increasing shear.
Ciel

10PM CDT 20 July, 2026 Update
Now Tropical Storm Bertha continues to intensify tonight as the center has finally nestled underneath the deepest convection that is firing in the southern half of the circulation. With the center finding ways to stay even a little bit south, this keeps open the window for the cyclone to survive past Louisiana and perhaps go all the way to Texas.

In the meantime, Tropical Storm conditions are now occurring offshore and increasingly likely to occur along portions of the northern Gulf coast. With that, Tropical Storm Warnings are now being issued.
Ciel

12PM EDT 20 July, 2026 Update
Tropical Depression Two: The struggle is real. Northeasterly shear has overtaken dry air as the leading cause of the depression's inability to get named. Models have dramatically peddled back on their bullish outlooks and most now favor a low/mid-range tropical storm tracking into Louisiana or thereabouts, followed by an eventual demise over land.

There is a modest but decreasing chance that the cyclone remains more offshore and can avail itself of the very warm gulf waters, so a stronger system that makes it further west is still a possibility, but no longer the probability. More details on this can be found in the Lounge.
Ciel

11AM EDT 19 July, 2026 Update
Invest 91L has become Tropical Depression Two and NHC Advisories have begun.
Ciel

3:00AM EDT 19 July, 2026 Update

Tonight, Invest 91L now has somewhat of a surface circulation and also pressures at the surface are falling. However, the system lacks sufficient and organized deep convection as it is battling dry air and shear from an upper-level low impinging from the north. Nonetheless, it has more than a few avenues for tropical cyclone genesis to occur over the next 6-72 hours, and is more likely than not to develop. The next name on the list in 2026 is Bertha.

As far as track is concerned, earlier and stronger development could favor continued jogs ~ if not an outright persistent course ~ to the west. This could ultimately put Texas and/or northeastern Mexico on play. A somewhat delayed and/or weaker development would probably tend to favor a track heading as far east as Florida's Big Bend to as far west as the upper Texas gulf coast.

Recon will help and is scheduled to start heading in later today.
Ciel

12:45PM EDT 18 July, 2026 Update
The Area of Interest we have been tracking in the Gulf has been Invest tagged, and is now being monitored as Invest 91L. Recon has been tasked to begin flying in on Sunday. There are some indications that the environment for development may now be going up, perhaps even quite a bit overnight tonight, and so they may encounter a closed surface low when they get in there tomorrow.

Modeling has been a little vague, but with a more coherent system coming together and especially with recon scheduled to go in, should start being more reliable soon. Interests all along and in the Gulf may want to follow along with us on this one. Lots more modeling data, analysis and speculation can be found in the Lounge.
-Ciel

Original Update
We are now closely monitoring two systems that while still officially listed as having "slight" chances for development, are already producing heavy weather.

The first, and closest to home, is an area of closed low pressure aloft that is building down towards the surface, not yet Invest-tagged,
but we already have a Forecast Lounge up on this one:



Eastern Gulf Low Forecast Lounge (INVEST 91L)

The second is a stout tropical wave now located south of the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic, but encountering cooler waters and stable air.

There is a new area off the Southeastern US with a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.  Significant tropical development is not currently expected, but an elevated rip current risk may develop at area beaches towards midweek due to breezy onshore winds. Worth watching, but likely minimal impact (except isolated rain). The heat dome north of the system into North Carolina will bring a massive heat wave to that area.  Coastal impacts in wherever it goes most likely Friday and Saturday. (4th) From North Florida to South Carolina, this could change.

See the forecast lounge for more speculation on this system.

Satellite Image Offshore as of 6/29/2026:

After the highly sheared Tropical Storm Arthur briefly formed near the Texas coast, there's nothing else Tropical in the Atlantic on the horizon for the next 2 weeks at least. Typically July isn't too active, but occasionally something can form, so we'll still watch.

Arthur's main impact was extreme amounts of rainfall in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and a few other places. Near and inland along the Mississippi Gulf coast in particular, the rainfall amounts were something not seen in many many years in that area, causing all sorts of freshwater flooding.

We'll be watching the tropics into July.