MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu May 29 2025 02:06 PM |
General Long Range Lounge
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The GFS and Euro (and a few ensembles) have been hinting at a few things the second week of June. Not too concerned about it yet, but worth mentioning in the lounge.
The 12z Euro has backed off anything happening in the Gulf, so I'd put money on nothing happening, but watch the west carib anyway as GFS ensembles have increased in the area though..
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri May 30 2025 01:33 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Gfs still mostly alone, but noting the east pacific pop up here as well. Something to watch, but doubt either of the runs from today materialize. In other words, it's likely if something happens, the east pacific is more likely.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri May 30 2025 08:35 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Quote:
Gfs still mostly alone, but noting the east pacific pop up here as well. Something to watch, but doubt either of the runs from today materialize. In other words, it's likely if something happens, the east pacific is more likely.
Yeppers... GFS may be crying wolf, but the 06Z run doubled down on a strong TC in the GOMEX June 9/10th eyeballing landfall near Biloxi as a fairly strong hurricane. Yes, hurricanes are rare in early June and we have a deep trough setting us up for an unusual June 1st FROPA, but SST's in the central and eastern GOMEX are climbing into the mid-80's and the atmospheric parameters will become favorable the second week in June when the Atlantic ridge re-establishes. Either other models start to hit on this, or the GFS totally abandons the idea in future runs. We shall see...
06zMay30 GFS
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri May 30 2025 10:56 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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6z gfs is a bit on the crazy side for kicking off on the 20th anniversary year of Katrina, euro operational doesn't show anything, however several ensembles do. And the GFS ensembles are also suggesting something could form in a week.from Monday or so.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri May 30 2025 01:19 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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12z shifted back to a hurricane impact on florida
Probably the best idea is to watch ensembles a bit more until the day range closes, the euro still has a few ensemble members, but mostly west. Too soon to really say on it. But in this run the GFS starts to develop it on June 7th in the West Caribbean.
The GFS typically overdoes this situation, but there is a few euro ensembles also involved, so there's a slight chance something may develop, but unlikely to be this powerful.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat May 31 2025 07:54 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The operation GFS continues to show development, whereas the others do not. (18z is back to a major hit on LA/MS)
However there still are signals on the Euro Ensembles for something
Euro Ensembles:
GFS Ensembles:
There is also a weak area off the SE (and FLorida) that the Euro and Canadian pick up.
Normally I'd write of the GFS, and mostly I do, but the MJO, Euro ensembles, make me think there's a chance something tries to develop, I just doubt it'll be anything like the GFS has been showing. (And may not succeed)
Another view of the Euro Ensembles:
Overall, the East Pacific is much more likely to see another system than the Atlantic
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jun 01 2025 05:20 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The southeast coast looks more liekly than the GFS at this point, however there's still long range ensemble members showing something in the gulf also, but later on (June 12th or so)
The euro ensemble tracks for the Southeast System, which may get a lemon on the outlook tomorrow.
The gfs is falling back on the idea it had earlier, going later and further west, which may wind up getting pushed into the east pacific. However worth noting is the euro ensembles here:
which are showing something there in the very long range. Just not what the GFS was showing.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 03 2025 07:03 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The gfs system has shifted again to the west and is no longer in the Gulf, and its now showing that energy moving into the east Pacifc, another potential phantom is behind it. If you are curious why there wasn't too much talk about the earlier GFS runs, this is why since the early season bias in this region is notorious and why you look look for more than a single models support. weak indications on the euro ensembles, non withstanding. .
What to look for ijn the GFS bias runs is 1, no or very little other model support, 2. tendency to push the timeframe back every day. And this was no exception here. (GFS is showing another West Caribbean system at the tail end of the 6z run this morning -- around June 16th)
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 03 2025 10:04 AM |
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Quote:
The gfs system has shifted again to the west and is no longer in the Gulf, and its now showing that energy moving into the east Pacifc, another potential phantom is behind it. If you are curious why there wasn't too much talk about the earlier GFS runs, this is why since the early season bias in this region is notorious and why you look look for more than a single models support. weak indications on the euro ensembles, non withstanding. .
What to look for ijn the GFS bias runs is 1, no or very little other model support, 2. tendency to push the timeframe back every day. And this was no exception here. (GFS is showing another West Caribbean system at the tail end of the 6z run this morning -- around June 16th)
My take too. Still, there was some consistency (location/timing) in GFS runs early on, but other models didn't give it a nod so you are spot on with not biting as the GFS gradually pushed out the time frame and changed the track in the Gulf, then added another spin up at the tail end of the run. Hope the sometimes early harbinger model can get back on track as the season progresses.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jun 05 2025 07:37 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The next few weeks look to be quiet in the Atlantic.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jun 08 2025 07:38 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The GFS model keeps placings storm near around the West Caribbean into the gulf in a week to 10 days, however, again the other models don't do anything with it. GFS been in the "week to 10 days" mode for over 10 days now, so it shifts the timeframe back. The Venezuela mountain induced vorticity flaw the model has is really on display this year. However, the flooding rainfall in Central America is real, the hurricanes are not. The pattern for these style phantom storms is they get delayed and/or shifted further west/south until it doesn't exist anymore.
The East Pacific will probably see the most activity from the energy/moisture once beyond central America. But again, it looks like another quiet week in the Atlantic basin.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 10 2025 07:31 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Still remains very quiet in the Atlantic, but the east pacific is showing quite strong ensembles on the Euro, potentially the first major coming in the east Pacific.
This year so far has remained more like typical hurricane season, where most of the early activity remains in the East Pacific. It's seeming more likely we won't see anything in June, and probably little to nothing in July based on the patterns of similar years past. The next real sign is watching for when the main development region gets active and the classic waves start to show up. A weak one or two may start to appear in about two weeks, but anything this early would likely not form.
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CFHC
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| Wed Jun 11 2025 01:57 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Small change today,
GFS and euro kinda hinting at the idea of weakness in ridging being enough to kick something into the BoC next week. CMC/Icon still thinking Epac. GFS sending it up to at or just south of Brownsville 12z Euro actually has it also this time into the BoC and matches the GFS up until about 180 hours out, but then euro dives it into Mexico.
GFS Brownsville is June 20th Euro Tampico is 19th
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CFHC
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| Fri Jun 13 2025 05:18 PM |
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Bay of Campeche for the middle of next week seems a bit more likely now with multiple models suggesting it can happen. However it's likely to be (Very) short lived before making landfall. However, odds still greatly favor this not happening, and the entire month of June being quiet.
Shot's from the new google deepmind https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab model
| cieldumort |
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| Sat Jun 14 2025 04:12 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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A majority of modeling so far that cooks up a SW Gulf TC next week do so out of what is now Invest 94E in the East Pac, and a Lounge is now up for tracking this feature.
Vort-centric "hurricane model" runs on 94E have just started, and it will probably be a day or two before they can start to be taken more seriously.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jun 15 2025 09:06 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The average looking year continues, east pacific higher activity early, which is typical, (unlike the last few years). I don't think anything will develop in the BoC, window is vastly closing on that, and the NHC rightfully has not called out the area. IT won't stop Mexico from getting crazy rainfall from what tries to pull into the mainland, though Overall pattern matches the average years, which means probably no named systems until late July, and a more active August than the last couple years. Just really watching for the wave train to show signs of kicking in in about a month.
If anything does pop up before then, it'll be short lived systems. But again I think it's going to be a more typical year for storms than we've had in the last few.
EPac activity in June is closer to the climatological norms this year, and so is the Atlantic. If it follows the trend of other years similar to this, activity in late July and earlier parts of August are more likely than the past few years have been. The main part of the season likely will be active, but the water temperatures being warmer further north has a two pronged impact, sure more fuel, but also more shear likely. So it tends to balance out.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jun 22 2025 12:41 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Small chance (10%) that something short lived pops up east of Bermuda in the next 7 days. I'm not expecting it to develop.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 23 2025 08:25 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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90L's window for development is beginning to close, it may reach depression status, but unlikely to get a name. Beyond that, maybe something short-lived off the southeast late next week that moves out to sea. But it doesn't look like the first half of July will have anything to speak of either. But the areas to watch are off the southeast us coast and bay of campeche. (Neither of which are particularly likely)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 25 2025 07:26 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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It wound up getting a name, borderline, but it did have a decent circulation. Not much in the new few weeks, some of the models (euro/cmc/deepmind) hintt at something short lived forming off the southeast coast next weekend/July 5th, but the GFS does not.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jun 26 2025 07:51 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The Bay of Campeche area (shows best on the Euro) got a 20% label on it tonight. If it develops, it'll be short lived as well. The SE coast area in about 8-10 days is the other trend area.
Beginning to think late July and Early August may not be as dead for Atlantic activity as the past few years have been.
| cieldumort |
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| Fri Jun 27 2025 02:04 PM |
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Have started a thread just for the BoC Area of Interest over in The Tropics Today: W Gulf this weekend .
NHC now up to 30% if/once the disturbance has moved into the Bay of Campeche.
In order to realize its potential, the disturbance would have to spend enough time over the water and within what looks to be a rather small corridor of lower shear. No Invest tag yet, but will consider inclusion to the Forecast Lounge if these preconditions look to be coming together.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 28 2025 12:55 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Multiple models showing something next weekend around the southeast, mostly offf the Southeast, but the GFS is pushing for something in the Gulf near the Panhandle over the energy going off the southeast where most of the other models have it developing, including hte CMC, Icon, and Euro and the google deepmind model has a large spread here also.
Nothing stronger than a weak TS in any of these though.
Image frame targeting sunday morning next week
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 28 2025 07:35 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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18z gfs went a bit wild, but doesn't have much support elsewhere
This is very unlikely, however it does show the heat content in that part of the Gulf (which is very hot right now)
12z Euro keeps it weak and moves it off the southeast (icon does also)
Euro ensembles are mostly off the southeast coast, where GFS ensembles have it more in the northwast Gulf. It's looking more likely there may be something to watch for on the holiday weekend. Note, before this it means it's likely to be HEAVY ranfall over much of Central and North FLorida later in the week, regardless of development.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jun 29 2025 06:40 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Overnight model runs have backed off on development, but the general area of heavy rain remain.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 07 2025 06:03 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Beyond Chantal, the next hotspot may be the northeast Gulf in a week or so, but again, unlikely to develop much. (But Chantal was also unlikely)
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CFHC
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| Tue Jul 08 2025 03:06 PM |
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12z Euro is surprisingly strong with vorticity on the Gulf area, over the GFS which isn't.
matches
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 09 2025 07:09 AM |
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Overnight models backed off on this one, except for the GFS.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 10 2025 08:36 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The Gulf area mentioned in the models is interesting, a lot of mixed signals, but enough to make it worth watching into next week, again another case where the models are having a hard time consolidating on anything. It'll likely be something that slips off the atlantic then goes back into the Gulf and it may sit around enough to develop. Ensembles pick it up better than the operational models right now.
Effectively the dot cluster in this map (in a week)
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CFHC
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| Fri Jul 11 2025 03:36 PM |
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Less activity today on the euro, more on the GFS
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 12 2025 06:52 AM |
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a Little more activity on the ensembles this evening (both Euro and Gfs)
What to watch is the area off south carolina moving south, crossing over Florida, bringing more rain, then into the Gulf, where it has a small chance to develop. Mid to late week.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 16 2025 05:07 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Euro ensembles are showing some activity in the MDR late next week. (Also a few members for 93L)
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Jul 17 2025 12:41 PM |
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Conditions basin-wide in the Atlantic may be flipping from unfavorable to slightly favorable as we enter the back half of July. This could allow for more than just home-grown systems to stand a chance for at least a little while.
As noted by Andy Hazelton, Associate Scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, on X
Quote:
Recent trade wind patterns (weakened across the Atlantic, stronger across the East Pacific) have led to warming of the Atlantic MDR and cooling of ENSO. The Atlantic is now slightly warm relative to the global tropics, in a more favorable configuration than we've seen since Spring.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 18 2025 07:33 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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MDR Activity is shown on muiltiple models as soon as Monday or so. (GFS/Euro/Canadian and the ensembles all show something roughly 12n 45w
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CFHC
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| Fri Jul 18 2025 01:57 PM |
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12z euro also showing the MDR system, those in the Leewards and Barbados should keep an eye on it, I suspect the 8pm tropical weather outlook will call it out since it's been multiple runs/models at this point.
Luckily it gets sheared out beyond there.
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CFHC
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| Thu Jul 24 2025 04:17 PM |
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Fairly large uptick on ensembles in the MDR this afternoon
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 24 2025 07:35 PM |
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18z gfs shows this entering the gulf.
18z Euro AIFS (AI) shows a miami hurricane hit (Aka Dexter Meme Maker)
I remind folks this is the forecast lounge, so these posts type of posts are ok. I don't expect this to happen. We don't post stuff like thee longer range models this on the main page or outside because it's incredibly misleading.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 25 2025 06:29 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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0z gfs keeps the system mentioned above weak and through the Caribbean, the euro ai has shifted much weaker and further north, however the euro ensembles are very much active still (but the GFS ensembles are not) 6z GFS is similar to 0z (caribbean)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 25 2025 02:48 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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12z GFS keeps the system into the Caribbean, and the 12z Euro does start to develop in the Bahamas and then curves away from the mainland US, staying west of Bermuda also.
So far it looks like anything that could develop from that area won't until late next week and it seems most likely to stay away from the mainland US. But it'll be worth watching until so.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 26 2025 02:04 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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the operational models and euro ensembles have backed away from development for the most part now. Looking good for another quiet few weeks in the Atlantic.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Jul 27 2025 09:04 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Long range situation today, not much going on, however two areas worth at least watching.
The wave across the MDR, likely not to develop but the energy has enough to keep an eye on for a while
The google output shows the spread of the possibilities, but most likely it either won't develop or be weak and remain offshore.
The first area would be close to the SE US in about 2 weeks, and a week before it's close to the Caribbean islands.
Icon and Euro AI show the most with it, Euro AI's been consistent with keeping it a potential threat to South Florida, but it's all on its own there. It'll be something to watch to see when it starts changing its tune.
(August 6 grab from the model:)
It's linked from the front page or click here to see it.
The other area is off some of the same vorticity that 93L had (although its getting harder and harder to link it) gets offhsore of the Carolinas and develops, heading out to sea. Safely away from Bermuda.
These are the current two low probability areas being watched.
The MDR is not in a state to support development right now, but the waves are there. Good test to see how the newer AI models handle it. If the wave going across the Atlantic doesn't develop, we know it was bit off.
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CFHC
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| Sun Jul 27 2025 01:05 PM |
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12z gfs develops a few things off the carolinas. One of those gets near bermuda.
12z canadian puts something close to s. Florida similar to euro ai.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 27 2025 01:36 PM |
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I'm favoring potential western Atlantic TC formation in early August a bit further south offshore of Savannaha GA. Will a single consolidated low spin up along an old frontal boundary, or possibly several lows if the boundary lingers as portrayed in the latest GFS? This season, I don't have faith in model conjecture more than 3-4 days out ATM. That said, homegrown systems can evolve in a matter of hours instead of days.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 28 2025 08:10 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Former area of 94L looks decent on satellite this morning Northeast of Puerto Rico, but it'll be entering areas affected by the Saharan Air Layer, so likely short lived.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Jul 28 2025 03:14 PM |
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TC (Dexter?) spins up east of the Carolinas next weekend?
GFS
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Jul 28 2025 04:43 PM |
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Quote:
TC (Dexter?) spins up east of the Carolinas next weekend?
GFS
IsoFlame,
I get an error (403 forbidden) when selecting the GFS link you provided.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jul 29 2025 06:21 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Euro, Icon, Euro AI and Candian still insist the wave is the MDR becomes a late bloomer closer to the Bahamas. Euro now takes it over Florida and develops in t he Gulf, The AI Version is simiilar but doesn't develop as much in the Gulf. Canadian keeps it east of Florida, and the GFS keeps it in the Islands and doesn't develop at all.
GFS has moved away from anything organized off the Carolinas, but there's still some energy possible there. (None of the other models latch onto it) However plenty of ensembles still show it, whereas the ensembles are much less enthusiastic about the MDR.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 30 2025 06:40 AM |
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Still nothing too concerning in the short term, just the possible wave nearing the islands this weekend and it moving into the Bahamas with less support for development than before, however something to lounge watch, but is not worth mentioning otherwise from what I can see. Another wave behind that is in that state too right now.
An area forming east off the carolinas is also small shot, it would likely get stretched/sheared apart if anything did develop and avoid land interaction on top of it.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 30 2025 12:51 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Support for the MDR wave has dried up (in more ways than one). So it looks ok for now. A few minor ensembles perk it up. But AI/Euro/GFS/CMC/ICON and the Ukmet do not show anything from it.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 30 2025 02:25 PM |
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Rough going out the Atlantic lately for any wave trying to make it to the New World
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 31 2025 12:31 PM |
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IMHO, looking out past ten days or so is very challenging and almost unrealistic other than to gather a clue as to whether or not conditions may be trending more favorable for development. Considering the number of new models recently being utilized by folks, I found the plot below informative.
The AIFS single does very poorly when compared to the GFS Ensemble mean and ECMWF ensemble mean. However, the AIFS ensemble mean actually slightly outperforms.
Above: 30-90°N 500mb skill scores since December for ECMWF's new AI ensemble (AIFS-ENS) vs. GFS Ens, EURO Ens and AIFS single
h/t World Climate Service on X
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 02 2025 03:05 AM |
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Mid/late August is just about universally recognized as the "real" hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, climatologically. This time frame is when conditions come together to make TC genesis and development much more conducive, with systems anticipated to form way out in the basin and less forming close to home.
Checking in on some of the key the conditions for development in the Tropical Atlantic this year through August 1st shows that, for the most part, the Main Development Region remains fairly inhospitable compared to average, for now, almost entirely because of low vertical instability in the face of a great deal of Saharan Air (warm and dry air aloft)
Above: Vertical Instability in the Tropical Atlantic remains well below average (Bodes poorly for development)
Above: Mean Sea Level Pressure in the Tropical Atlantic remains much higher than average (Bodes poorly for development)
Above: 850hPa Horizontal Divergence may be turning more favorable and has been more favorable so far, overall.
Higher levels of divergence at this level in the atmosphere are often associated with rising air (Favorable for development)
Above: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic have been running higher than average (Favorable for development)
Above: General shear in the Tropical Atlantic has been running about average (Generally favorable for development)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 02 2025 04:26 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Persistence is the key is something that drives this site's goal of no hype. Right now the models haven't been very persistent, consistent, or agreed on much, and that remains the case. It doesn't mean no activity, just means there's nothing concerning.
There is a signal that in or around the typicall "bell ring" point of the 20th, this year will wind up being average, and that also means we may have multiple systems going around then. Just nothing on the models calling out anything specific. Euro is showing systems very close to Bermuda and in the Caribbean and something else in between. The GFS isn't showing much. The euro AI model seems to be fixated on South Florida and the Gulf again, just with a different system than the weak wave currently NE of the Caribbean it was showing a week ago or so. Watching for persistence, and if any other models join (and persist) to take any of that seriously.
One wildcard is activity off the Carolinas. Ensembles like it a lot for something weak/short lived or stretched out. But nothing has persisted there, so if anything does form it'll likely be short lived there. Not enough persistence to call out anything significant.
I suspect the next week will be generally quiet, but the signals for the week beyond and more will get louder and louder. A bit concerning this year with the overall pattern more favorable for east coast landfalls than usual -- if anything forms that is. Doesn't mean they will, just that the odds are a bit higher than usual. Particularly the Carolinas a bit north to New England, However, again without any consistency timing and storm location will matter more than anything else there.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 02 2025 04:58 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Longer range another area is likely to develop in the MDR, but it most likely will recurve away well before the Caribbean, even though a few ensembles have it going further west, it's less likely. Bermuda may need to watch it. The area off North Carolina may develop short lived, but the front is still very much involved so it may remain stretched out.
The wave currently north of Puerto Rico should be watched, especially as it gets toward the Bahamas, but it also not likely to develop.
18z gfs throws a hurricane in the wake of the yellow 30% area that gets very close to the NC OBX, delaware, and Cape Cod.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 03 2025 11:05 AM |
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Some interesting this that kinda highlight how mid August may start to get active fast.
95L here on satellite, a frontal boundry over the north gulf, and the old 94L which is the area north of Hispaniola. All somewhat flaring up and showing it probably won't take much to get things going= with relatively short notice sometimes. (I don't expect them to since the Gulf area will move inland, and the 94L area's convection is mostly very far northeast of it, but it does show what to look for)
The area on the southwestern part of 95L (off Jax) is the area that the icon/gfs are keying off of for next development. Icon and GFS want it close to the Outer Banks, but euro keeps it weak and shunts it back into E. Central Florida without development.
95L is also what will likely help pull the 30% area in the east Atlantic out to sea. (I know the GFS has it much further west, but that doesn't seem realistic with the 95l ridge hole)
sat:
matches low level (850) vorticity:
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 03 2025 12:14 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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I think the area around Hispaniola is mostly from the wave that can be traced back to the E ATL on 7/29. What was left of 94L went through the Lesser Antilles around July 23rd and remnants through the end of the month around there. If this were to start to develop, my bet would be an assignment of a new Invest tag (although upon reviewing more past loops would agree that x94L energy is playing a role here...)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 03 2025 07:07 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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18z Long range show a cat 3 making landfall in Melbourne, FL, from the area in the East Atlantic but the euro and its ensembles all show it recurving well east of the Caribbean. I'm betting on the recurve being much more likely. Showing both. It's important to remember this isn't even off Africa yet.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 04 2025 01:17 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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0z GFS continues the same idea as 18z, and Melbourne.
** the wave still isn't off Africa yet, so this is likely going to change. Icon and euro still have it recurving well east of here, and that still remains the most likely outcome.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 04 2025 07:05 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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following up the 6z gfs is starting to bend more toward the euro, which recurves the system corruently about to exit Africa well before Bermuda. This time the gfs (on the 6z run) shows a strong hurricane landfall near Charleston, but I suspect in future runs it'll shift even further east and more aligned with the euro.;
For the area off the southeast most models ar seeing it go to South Carolina and remaining relatively weak.
Euro does show another wave behind the african one moving into the Caribbean though.
So more activity, but nothing too concerning yet.
Why? The euro ensembles show it, but it's about ridging lasting that long and the weakness caused by Dexter, which will more than likely be enough to draw the wave up and out, along with an upper level low potentially eroding that ridge. There's a few stray ensemble members from a system over the Bahamas in a week worth at least noticing here too for Florida/Gulf.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 04 2025 12:37 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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12z GFS has basically given up on the idea of the East Atlantic system being significant, and moves the wave over the Caribbean islands. Euro/Icon still recurves it east of Bermuda. Still nothing really concerning to me out in the Atlantic either way though.
(Edit: GFS gets it together quickly once in the Gulf)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 04 2025 02:25 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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12z euro and euro ai stays weak with the Cabo Verde wave and keeps it east of Bermuda still.
However, behind that one it decided to go completely ballistic with as it crosses the Atlantic, and winds up with a Cat 5 in the Bahamas around Aug 19th.
Still way too far in advance to take seriously, but that's typically not something the euro does.
euro ensembles are very active.
Short term, mdr is still stable, but it's gradually becoming more favorible for tropical development during the middle of the month. This is really the most useful information to be gained from the models before anything has developed.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 04 2025 09:46 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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I'd call the area in the Bahamas right now another potential watch area, along with the current 30% area off Georgia. There's some vorticity and spin down there also. Models in the east Atlantic need to actually develop before anything on the long range can even begin to be taken seriously.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 05 2025 08:11 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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After shifting to recurve last night on the 0z the 6z GFS shifted west back to landfall near Lamp Lejune/Jacksonville, NC on the 16th.
It doesn't do much at wall with the other area though.
:the 0z Euro still recurves the east Atlantic wave east of Bermuda , but does develop the wave behind that, which reaches deep into the Caribbean. It's a depression or tropical storm over the lesser antilles, and develops into a hurricane, gets close/over Jamaica, and
Euro does take the area of interest off the Southeast and develops it a little before clipping the outer banks, then it meanders offshore and strengthens for days but doesn't make landfall.
The long range is still not aligned.
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 05 2025 09:20 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Not sure where you are getting the Atlantic SST, but the MDR has had below average SST for the entire season except for a recent quick blip that has come and gone and it's back below normal!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 05 2025 01:46 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Interestingly the 12z GFS has shifted back west toward Cape Canaveral
Icon shifted to be SSW of Bermuda, but the 12z Euro still keeps it east of Bermuda. Euro still likes the followup wave better and
My guess for the track of this area is still somewhere in the middle, which may make it get closer to Bermuda (but not much... still safely east), but very unlikely to get to the US mainland.
The followup behind this wave is the one the Euro really likes. However, MDR may be a little more favorable overall on some parameters -- but not all, it's still not enough to support something larger, although it makes it more likely for later when the waves get further west.
Both major models show a follow able area on Friday, which is probably the day the models start to reconcile a bit more.
Ensembles spell out the more likely paths I think
The gfs ensembes (GEFS) has also backed off quite a bit on the idea of the first wave making all the way west. It's also making me watch the area over the Bahamas now. (See the ensemble members that start in the Gulf) The wave east of the wave in the outlook is still the favored one by the euro set.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 05 2025 09:56 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The 18z Euro ensembles are a pretty strong indicator the 50% area in the east Atlantic will stay well east of Bermuda. I do think the system east of it may be more interesting to watch.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 06 2025 07:39 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Overnight runs of the GFS shifted to be more in line with the Icon, CMC and Euro models with the African wave, recurving well east of the US. For me, the remaining question is how close it gets to Bermuda, and if it makes to Newfoundland. Those in Bermuda will want to keep close eyes on it.
The wave beyond that is now being picked up by both models, which generally is more concerning as it's a long tracker, although probably won't develop much until much later.
The wave off the southeast depends on how close it gets to the outer banks, I do think it'll develop later this week, and it may be close enough to the outer banks to cause issues, but not sure about landfall.
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CFHC
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| Wed Aug 06 2025 02:16 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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12z Euro is now recurving the wave behind Invest 96L way before the islands. Hopefully that trend continues there too. SE Area probably will develop, but stay offshore. The area of the Bahamas is looking less likely to develop, but should still be watched. Anything in this part of the MDR is unlikely to get very strong. The Euro AI is still showing something moving west, but it doesn't handle undeveloped systems well.
The trend of nothing concerning continues.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 06 2025 06:54 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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18z gfs is highligting multiple, 6-7 areas by the end of the run, some like the area currently east of the leewards around 53w may even get a lemon soon. not sure if all of them will actually happen, but the idea of activity really picking up by mid-late this month seems solid at this point. Where they wind up is something different.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 06 2025 07:40 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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This isn't going to happen, but showing off one of the most classic "Happy Hour" runs I've seen.
with double vision cat 4 hurricanes
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 07 2025 06:49 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Overnight models show the wave behind 96L being the one to watch the closest. The two low key areas, Bahamas and east of the Lesser Antilles have dropped off for the most part although the lesser Antilles one less so, and 96L itself may still get close to Bermuda, so it's important for those there to watch.
Models generally show a very active mid to late August, but too early to say specifics on where things wind up.
Euro ensembles below:
0z GFS shows the wave east of 96L entering the Caribben potentially affecting some of the leewards, Jamaica, Caymans, Cuba, and eventually toward Northeastern Texas. The 0z euro surprisingly aligns with that as well. But also has a system east of it (Similar to the 18z gfs) but this one goes over Berumda. the 0z GFS also takes 96L over Bermuda, but Euro takes 96L well east of it. It does try to develop the wave east of the lesser antilles, but is on/off with it .
The 6z GFS takes 96L slightly west of Bermuda, and the system behind it is north of the Caribbean and follows 96L -- much weaker. It also develops the minor wave east of the lesser Antilles again in the Caribbean, but keeps it weak. Bermuda should definitely continue to watch 96L closely.
General climatology and odds favor both 96L and the wave behind it both recurving before the US, but it's a lot less a sure bet for the wave behind 96L. With the uptick in activity about to come in mid to late August there should be plenty to watch. The in Africa wave doesn't have a shot to become an invest area until Sunday or Monday though, so lots of time for things to change on it, even longer for anything to really develop, which is the next milestone, which because of the situation in the MDR, isn't a sure thing it will.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 07 2025 02:52 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Quote:
With the uptick in activity about to come in mid to late August there should be plenty to watch. The in Africa wave doesn't have a shot to become an invest area until Sunday or Monday though, so lots of time for things to change on it, even longer for anything to really develop, which is the next milestone.
The MDR is waking up. My gut feeling is that it will progressively kick out multiple disturbances through the heart of the season, but they will be slow to develop much until reaching 60 west where the sweet spot with abundant moisture, low shear and above normal SST's may persist.
While 2025 is a few weeks ahead of historical activity for named systems, and we will probably get the first hurricane of the season around the typical time in mid-August, I think we're on track for a near normal season for named storms and ACE, though we may fall short on the number of hurricanes and majors.
Guessing about the area that could be impacted by a significant Atlantic hurricane, I'd favor the southeast Florida peninsula (Miami/Dade) and Keys, followed by the far western Florida panhandle and/or Alabama. These parts of the coast are overdue given they escaped the brunt of the hyper-active last 5 seasons. A TC like Andrew', initially unimpressive until everything comes together, could be in store in late August or early September.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 07 2025 07:28 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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18z gfs shifted west with a stronger ridge, and long range landfalls around the SC/NC border, just north of Myrtle Beach in 2 weeks. It shifts 96L to recurve sooner like the other models giving the ridge a chance to build in stronger. It avoids the caribbean islands to the north, just barely, and misses the Bahamas to the north in the run. But it's a bit of a signal to keep watch on that wave.
Additionally it shows potential development in the West Caribbean late next week (something to watch at least).
The next name on the list is Erin. Erin of 1995 happens to be the very first hurricane we covered here, it made a double florida landfall, first as a hurricane in Vero Beach and a second landfall near Pensacola.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 08 2025 06:50 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Overnight runs, except for the Canadian, miss the Caribbean Islands. The Euro now recurves the system before the southeast, but threatens new England. The 0z GFS has a south Florida then gulf then Destin hit. There's a long track system coming, although probably days before anything develops so the door is pretty wide open. Any land impacts are 10-15 days out, assuming it doesn't curve before then.
The 6z GFS makes no us landfall at all, but gets very close to the Outer Banks and Cape Cod / Martha's Vineyard (brushes by) as well as brushes Nova Scotia. The notable thing about the 6z gfs is how long it keeps 96L around as a hurricane, which seems to impact the waves track.
One notable thing about the 6z run this morning it stalls 96L in the central atlantic for days.
Something to watch closely over the next two weeks, but nothing definitive or overly concerning now, The current model run set don't even really develop anything for another week, where prior ones did around tue-wed of next week.
last frame of 0z euro
0z gfs
=0z canadain (Weak south of Hispaniola)
euro ensemble spread
In short no guarantee for land impacts, but enough to monitor it for a while. Ensembles + Climatology shifts the odds to very slightly favor no landfall right now.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 08 2025 01:25 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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12z gfs has a few notable changes, it develops the system fairly quickly, gets it to a depression by Sunday or Monday, possibly a storm by Tuesday, and also kicks 96l out of the picture much sooner. Giving some time for a ridge to build west, which it takes advantage of and moves over the Bahamas through the Florida straits and into the Gulf, making landfall in Texas.
I'll be curious to see the other models and ensembles and if that shifts them more westward or not.
--
It did some, but most still recurve, Euro AI recurves this run. However the operation euro does get further west/stronger at 12z and makes landfall in Eastern NC then goes over the outer banks and makes another landfall still really strong over Massachusetts.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 08 2025 04:12 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The euro Ensembles did push slightly westward, but most still are out to sea. Plenty of time to watch this wave. The GFS ones went the other direction.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 09 2025 05:36 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The 0z GFS makes landfall in the eastern Bahamas and in eastern North Carolina on the 00z, Euro stays offshore until it makes landfall in Eastern Massachusetts and again in Nova Scotia. Most ensembles recurve it, but there's enough to cause a long term watch as it crosses the Atlantic. Recurve is still the most likely, but not a strong likely. The Euro AI takes it into South Carolina around Georgetown, between Charleston and Myrtle Beach.
Both makor models show another system behind it, GFS takes it into the Caribbean, euro north of there. GFS impacts Jamaica and the Cyaman Islands on that system.
For the Caribbean Islands, euro is safely to the north, GFS is north, but a bit too close for comfort.
0z Canadian recurve it
We'll probably make a new main page about this system when it develops.
Next post about this will be in its own lounge topic.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 10 2025 08:02 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The area southwest of Florida is starting to show a signature on the vorticity charts, not likely to develop but could be worth watching. No low level low here, which is what it would need to develop tropically, but lots of other ingredients are there if it worked its way to the surface.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 14 2025 10:00 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Another wave is showing up behind Erin on the GFS and Euro Ensembles that we'll probably want to watch after Erin passes.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 15 2025 09:01 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Quote:
Another wave is showing up behind Erin on the GFS and Euro Ensembles that we'll probably want to watch after Erin passes.
Especially if recent modeling is onto something:
GFS 06Z Aug 29
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 15 2025 01:22 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Posting this image just because of how insanely coincidental it is, but it's highly not likely to happen. Although we should watch the wave coming
This is a GFS 312 hours out showing a ladnfall in coastal mississippi with a massive wind field inside of 24 hours on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 19 2025 11:51 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The Atlantic SST configuration has turned quite favorable-looking (for TC development) over the last couple weeks, in large part driven by reduced trades over the Caribbean.
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 19, 2025
In fact, 2025 now ranks #7 in terms of MDR SST anomaly (with the tropics mean anomaly removed to bias… pic.twitter.com/S33vdfWMvO
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 23 2025 04:00 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The two current invest aren't likely going to amount to much, 90L is likely to develop, but remain weak, and 99L, although persistent, really doesn't have a great shot to develop now, but could later. Areas off the southeast coast from fronts are probably going to be the next development after it, but the next week or two are likely uncharacteristically going to be light. Mid to late September seems like the most likely time for folks to watch. Monitor closely, but nothing concerning right now.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 25 2025 07:26 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Very quiet on the long range front outside Fernand. 99L may wind up something in the east Pacific, but as it stands now, recon didn't find the LLC needed to keep it going on the Atlantic side. Turning to ensembles for peak season is pretty unusual, just a hint of a frontal low developing off the coast of Carolina and moving nne for a short-lived weak system, and maybe a wave exiting Africa on September 1st that has the odds stacked against it for development. There's nothing in a favorible location to speak of for the next two weeks or so, later half of September could have more activity, but for the moment it's thankfully very quiet in the Atlantic, other than Fernand moving safely out to sea.
Barbados and surrounding islands are getting some rain from 99L, but that's likely to move out later today. 99L itself missed its window of opportunity to develop in the Atlantic, conditions are too hostile in the Caribbean.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 25 2025 09:57 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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This morning there is a vigorous surge of convection tracking WNW over the western Caribbean Sea south of Cuba that is pushing WNW toward the Yucatan peninsula.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 25 2025 10:23 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Near term, I usually look at the vorticity charts to see if convection aligns with anything for potential with tropical development at the 850 level, if it does, then you have to check closely for low levels. (99L fit the 850 well, but lacked the low level.. you need both for development.) 99L's 850 reflection has tanked since yesterday so it's not doing anything in the Atlantic. Yucatan area has no circulation/vorticity at low or mid levels. The area East of New Jersey is too elongated and also too far north, Fernand is still there
The area near the OK/Texas/New Mexico borders is the one some of the models were hooking into for frontal development in a week off NC, but that's a long shot also. EPAC is going to see most of the activity this week.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 26 2025 07:59 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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0z Euro shows two MDR waves in the very long run, although the setup for them implies both will likely recurve., if they form (especially the western wave). The icon is very agressive with development right off Africa, but it's alone in that assumption. GFS is not really on board with either.
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CFHC
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| Thu Aug 28 2025 01:45 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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12z GFS does develop the wave off Africa, but eventually recurves it (although it does stall and dip south a bit). 12z Canadian develops it earlier. 12z Euro is weaker, and stretches it out around 52west longitude. Just not a lot of support at the moment, but something to watch later.
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CFHC
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| Sun Aug 31 2025 08:36 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Gfs and euro and ensembles show more potential for developnent now, but a recurve north of the caribbean islands remains the most likely outcome, bermuda should watch closely. The rest should just monitor.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 01 2025 07:55 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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This one is up to 60% development, and probably will, if itt gets too far west the TUTT will probably annihilate it. :The 12z icon shows the Caribbean islands need to at least monitor it. But the most likely land impact is still probably Bermuda, maybe even more likely to get closer than Erin around this time. As far as any continental US impacts, extremely unlikely and not really concerned for there, synoptic setup is really not going to allow it to get even as far west as Erin got.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 02 2025 07:54 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Models haven't changed all that much, still a potential threat to the Leeward islands, and moreso Bermuda. Ensembles have widened today, although most still recurve. Things like the GFS show a bit of a hook after Bermuda, so trends need to be watched, but a US landfall is still extremely unlikely.
Still, the most likely outcome, as of tonight, is that the area in the East Atlantic will recurve near/east of the Leewards and get close to Bermuda. However, a weaker storm in the MDR has a higher chance of getting much closer to the islands (where it could strengthen quickly). So leewards definitely need to monitor.
Euro AI doesn't develop thi sat all, the 18z euro is much further south than the 12z, 18z GFS ensembles are all recurving east of the islands
It may get invest tagged tomorrow, but it's dependent on if a llc or even coherant convective area can be estimated. (Right now it can't)
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 03 2025 07:30 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Pretty much status quo on the wave in the east Atlantic today. It's questionable if it'll even get invest tagged again today. Models vary between going over the islands weak, to stronger recrurving, or some in the middle like the Canadian. Most of the euro ensembles are north of the islands, all of the GFS ones are. In the very long range there's a stall near Bermuda on the GFS, which could make it interesting for Bermuda (although this type of movement in the very long range models is suspect. But any direct us landfall seems incredibly unlikely still. For the highest odds, you would have to go with something recurving east of the islands and getting near Bermuda, but it could get close enough to the leeward islands that those folks should watch too. The TUTT really is an obstacle for this here that the models are having issues with.
Until the convective area is more sound it's unlikely to get invest tagged (if you can't identify a decent center it doesn't help much) If the near term changes go up, it's more likely to get tagged. The tutt is definitely making the models struggle on run to run consistency. Gfs may be more sensitive to that track wise, euro more on the intensity side.
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CFHC
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| Wed Sep 03 2025 10:56 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Future posts about this system are in https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=115833&gonew=1#UNREAD
ensemble plots
GFS
Euro
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 07 2025 11:22 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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I think its fair to say that the folks who really dig in to making long range seasonal forecasts every year are a bit stunned by how 2025 is turning out so far.
We always have our preseason contest here, and I think we all try to do our best in the name of funzies, and so far, mine is looking pretty toast. Predictions made prior to early August are working off of very light info, subject to changes that typically do not materialize until August. And a lot of professional forecasting groups (universities, companies, etc.) that also made forecasts prior to August get the same pass as we do. However, most forecasts made since August have continued with the expectation of an above-average to very active year once all is said and done, and that is becoming more and more difficult to envision verifying.
Just some thoughts as I point out that very few models, aside from our solo bull this season, the GFS, show anything of interest with much consistency over the next couple of weeks(!!) This is incredible.
0z ECMWF has a sloppy depression or two at best forming out to the end-of-run at 360 hours
0z ICON also has perhaps a sloppy depression or two at best out to the end of its run at 180 hours
0z CMC, copy and paste from above, out to 240 hours
0z AIFS, copy and paste, out to the end of its run at 360 hours
At the moment, it almost looks like the easiest way for the Atlantic basin to see something form that gets any stronger than a TD, would be for a cross-over from the extreme eastern Pacific to find its way into the southwestern Gulf and/or for a CAG to toss one out over on this side of Central America.
Pretty phenomenal state of both the East Pac and Atlantic basins for a cool-neutral ENSO year: Active Eastern and Central Pacific, and relatively lifeless Atlantic.
A major shift in some large sub-seasonal players, such as the MJO, might have to turn very favorable for Atlantic-side development, to break this pattern.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 08 2025 03:40 PM |
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Quote:
I think its fair to say that the folks who really dig in to making long range seasonal forecasts every year are a bit stunned by how 2025 is turning out so far.
At the moment, it almost looks like the easiest way for the Atlantic basin to see something form that gets any stronger than a TD, would be for a cross-over from the extreme eastern Pacific to find its way into the southwestern Gulf and/or for a CAG to toss one out over on this side of Central America.
Pretty phenomenal state of both the East Pac and Atlantic basins for a cool-neutral ENSO year: Active Eastern and Central Pacific, and relatively lifeless Atlantic.
A major shift in some large sub-seasonal players, such as the MJO, might have to turn very favorable for Atlantic-side development, to break this pattern.
My thoughts for this year, re-enforced by the pattern that has established since Erin, is that the MDR isn't going to produce more than possibly one more named system. I believe there will be a flurry of home-grown activity in the GoMex, SW Atlantic and also possibly the western Caribbean that will bring the2025 season up to the expectations of near normal or slightly above activity. Heck, late August and early September have sent signals of this potential with numerous frontal boundaries penetrating deep into the southeast- some even as far south as the Keys.. Normally we dont see this until late September and early October.
There is plenty of deep, untapped warm water in the favorable late season basin. Unless there is some sort of sun spot ju-ju casting a blanket over the potential for TC in the favored second half of the season areas, it would not surprise me to see a tropical storm and/or a hurricane bracketing Florida a few hundred miles or so on both sides of the peninsula in 2 to 3 weeks.
BTW- I don't think a EPAC crossover is likely given the current "anti-woke" LGBTQ+ political climate.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 08 2025 07:09 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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18z gfs is back to active with a CAG system (most likely a phantom spawned by remnants of 91L, and not really enough to take seriously without any other model support and the fact shear around then would be likely very high) and another MDR system that curves and stalls near Bermuda. (Which does have some other ensemble support). So something to keep an eye on. Nothing concerning right now, though.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 08 2025 07:43 PM |
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There are a few features in the basin that look interesting, and during any usual "peak" of a season one could expect something to come of them, but at the moment, conditions for development are running marginal to outright hostile. Nonetheless, a few items of interest as mentioned here and elsewhere include, from closest to land to farthest out:
1. A stalled frontal boundary draped across the Gulf up into the offshore waters of the southeastern US with a few attendant areas of weak low pressure.
2. Whatever is left of the northern extent of former Invest 91L now rounding the Lesser Antilles
3.Wave approaching northeastern South America/southern Lesser Antilles.
4. Wave east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 23W from 17N southward
Big picture-wise, #1 is riddled with shear and it is not obvious how something other than a hybrid could cook up during the next week out of this, unless shear dramatically lessens over crucial portions of the boundary and/or crucial portions of the boundary drift further out south/east out of the range of the high shear zones.
#2 (x 91L) Pretty difficult to see this developing. Maybe fair to give it 2% within 7 days, or one-out-of-fifty odds.
#3 Might be something to keep an eye on if it starts to cook up some persistent deep convection and manages to pull north of South America in time. Perhaps a mention in tomorrow's TWO could be introduced on this feature by NHC depending on how it fairs tonight/overnight.
#4 Has some soft model support. Unfortunately for this wave, the Tropical Atlantic is still loaded with wave kryptonite this season.
Above: SW Atlantic surface analysis 9-8-25-1800z
Above: Atlantic basin shear analysis and shear tendency as of 9-8-25-2100z
Above: Atlantic basin dry air as of 9-8-25-2100z
Above: #3 approaching northeastern South America
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 08 2025 10:40 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The one by south america is very elongated west/east, and has no low level circulation (and the mid levels are weak). I don't see that developing. No 4 has the best shot, but that';s not saying much right now. Pattern is starting to change again, so maybe in a week and a half or two things will be back to being in phase for development.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 09 2025 08:48 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The 6z GFS shows nothing this moring. South American area had an ascat pass and showed the issues there, it's got competing vortexes and an elongated mid level. It's not going to develop.
There's never been a september without a named storm (or something that would qualify for a name) going tack to 1851, we're going for an attempt this year.. (Hint: I still don't think that will happen this year either with several weeks left). Tutt around 40W has been shunting things for the last few weeks, so when that moves, door is open.
On the animation page I've recorded the 850 vorticity charts, it shows since August 25th the persistant trough from the Gulf to Canada has effectively blocked any "home brew" style systems, while the TUTT around 40-50W has killed off any MDR waves, so the current setup is just bad for any type of development. East Pacific is very different from this right now. When the trough off the Southeast goes away, it leaves the door open for more storms, and probably will try to catch up in the lack of activity.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 09 2025 11:26 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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This being the climatological peak of the season, the focus for development will begin to shift more toward the Caribbean and the Gulf. If the preseason forecasts are to be verified, a later season peak may be on tap (or not).
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 10 2025 11:13 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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GFS is doing the CAG Phantom storm again, and unless more support for it, it's likely not going to happen (or wind up in the east pacific). The area in the east Atlantic is more likely, but still has a difficult road, if it does it'll likely recurve.
Wave East of the Caribbean is still way too elongated along the axis to develop.
| IsoFlame |
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| Thu Sep 11 2025 04:49 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Quote:
This being the climatological peak of the season, the focus for development will begin to shift more toward the Caribbean and the Gulf. If the preseason forecasts are to be verified, a later season peak may be on tap (or not).
Given the near-record warm and untapped SST's in this portion of the Atlantic basin, that is the horse that I'd put my money on. Look at the convection in the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche that is currently firing there, all that is needed is for the CAG to position favorably south of the unusual and persistent late summer frontal boundary
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 16 2025 09:29 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Quote:
Given the near-record warm and untapped SST's in this portion of the Atlantic basin, that is the horse that I'd put my money on. Look at the convection in the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche that is currently firing there, all that is needed is for the CAG to position favorably south of the unusual and persistent late summer frontal boundary
Above post I made 5 days ago still valid... Impressive tropical wave exiting the extreme NW Carribean Sea this morning, crossing the northern Yucatan Peninsula, headed into the Bay of Campeche later this week. Not highlighted in the 7-day, it might bear watching if it can stay clear of land, avoid shear in the GOMEX and linger over the near seasonal peak sea temps in this part of the basin.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 21 2025 03:52 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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I'm watching the 20% area (yellow) area, the orange area may develop, but the yellow area is more likely to have land impacts. Although at a week out you'd expect better agreement in modeling, we just don't have it.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 22 2025 08:42 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Last several runs of the GFS spin up a slow-moving major hurricane in the central Bahamas or in the Florida straits late in the first week of October.
Regardless, what has my attention is the possibility of a prolonged onshore flow produced by a stacked 50mb gradient between a slow-moving tropical system and a strong high anchored over the eastern seaboard coinciding with the highest lunar tidal cycle of Fall... stay tuned
| bob3d |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 22 2025 10:56 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Useful discussion on the tropical forecast:
HurricaneTrack
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 24 2025 09:15 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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While watching closely, I'm looking past 93 and 94L (both which models keep east of Florida) to potential threats in early October..The last 3 runs of the GFS all suggest an extended period (nearly week-long) of strong onshore easterly flow across the Florida peninsula due to the gradient between strong high pressure anchored over the eastern seaboard to the north and an intensifying TC (possibly becoming a major hurricane) to the south near Cuba. If this scenario plays out, the timing couldn't be worse as it will coincide with the highest lunar tides of the month peaking on the 9th.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 28 2025 02:50 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Forecast has Imelda tracking north offshore from the Cape while strengthening to a hurricane about the same time ground swell from Major Hurricane Humberto filters in. Coastal Volusia will have some serious erosion from the combination of Imelda's N/NE wind swell and Humberto's long period easterly ground swell Tuesday/Wednesday. Late in the week high pressure is forecast to build down the east US coast, tightening the gradient once again with a nor'easter likely leading into and over the weekend.
The first 10 days in October will be a period of strong onshore winds combined with hurricane ground swells. Surf run-up and beach over-wash could be problematic along the Volusia coast with Oct 8-10th peak lunar/Fall tides arriving.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 29 2025 09:52 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Imelda and Humberto aside, there is a low level low in the central Gulf as evidenced in satellite imagery and wind flow on https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...=-82.691,27.833. It’s a shallow circulation existing below 500mb, though.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 01 2025 05:52 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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The GOMEX is an untapped powder keg just waiting for late season atmospheric parameters to align in October. Last several runs of the GFS have suggested that a TC will spin up in the sub-basin by mid-month. Let's see fi the 18z backs up the previous 2 runs...
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 07 2025 08:31 AM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Just when you thought conditions along the east coast couldn't get worse after over a week of strong onshore wind combined with higher lunar tides exacerbating beach erosion:
A strong cold front will then move across the southeastern states on Wednesday, crossing the southeast Georgia waters late on Wednesday night and the northeast Florida waters on Thursday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure building over New England will wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Thursday, creating a surge of strong northeasterly winds and building seas. Low pressure is expected to develop east of Cape Canaveral on Friday, with this feature then moving slowly northward, likely approaching the Carolina Coast this weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread our local waters on Thursday, and Gale Watches will likely be required later this week as winds frequently gust to Gale Force by Thursday night and Friday. SATURDAY: North winds 30 to 40 knots. Seas 11 to 14 feet, occasionally to 18 feet. Intracoastal waters extremely rough.
| cieldumort |
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| Tue Oct 28 2025 11:43 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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CPC Week 2 and 3 outlook highlights the Caribbean with >20% chances each week for development. There has been some on and off global and ensemble model support for this. Both CAG and wave opportunities are suggested.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Nov 03 2025 12:09 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Post historic Melissa, the obese dame has been warming up her vocal cords on the 2025 hurricane season's conclusion. However, some medium range models say not so quick on belting out the final chorus. There is plenty of fuel in the way of well-above normal SST's in the western Caribbean and the southern GOMEX. Last several days, modeling has been toying with a depression, PTC or tropical storm spinning up in the gyre in the far western Caribbean around the 13th of November, then drifting NNW to a position in the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula.where it sits for several days without much development. Will it survive interaction with the Yucatan and increasing shear to realize the GOMEX? Too early to make the call, but definitely worth watching a week before Thanksgiving.